ICF Forecast
 Sees No Linkage
 Between Gas, Renewables

ICF International released an interesting forecast this week looking at the U.S. energy market over the next 10-plus years, and two items stood out.

For starters, while the consulting firm expects natural gas prices to climb steadily from their current lows it doesn’t see them climbing above $5 per million British thermal units until roughly 2025.

Even more interesting, the firm does not see any linkage between natural gas prices and renewable generation (see chart below).

The chart shows steady growth in renewable generation (the top number) through the forecast period regardless of the price assumed for natural gas, which ICF breaks out into a base case, and a high and low gas price. The amount of coal generation is directly affected by the assumed natural gas price, but not so for renewables. It’s a thought worth chewing on.

More information on ICF’s forecast can be found on the company’s website (www.icfi.com) under webinars.

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