Category Archives: Forecasts

1st Quarter LED Sales
 Top 25% Of Market,
 More Growth To Come

Distributed Generation, Environment, Forecasts, Utilities, ,

I don’t normally write short pieces—it’s bad for the search algorithms and such—but I couldn’t resist with a May 16 press release from the National Electrical Manufacturers Association, which demonstrates in just two paragraphs and accompanying graphics how completely (and quickly) the lighting market is changing in the United States.

According to NEMA, sales of so-called A-line LED lamps (the screw-in kind that dominate the residential lighting market) soared 375.9 percent in the first quarter of 2016 compared to a year earlier—topping 25 percent of sales for the first time. Just five years ago (as is clear in the graphics below), LED A-line lamps essentially had zero market share while incandescent bulbs still accounted for more than 70 percent of all residential lighting sales (a figure that has plummeted to just over 8 percent currently).

LED1stQ2016-NEMA

  Source: NEMA

Commenting on the association’s findings, Kevin Cosgriff, NEMA president and CEO, said, “The speed with which prices for common LED bulbs have declined and the corresponding consumer acceptance of this technology have exceeded manufacturers’ expectations.”  If you ask me, this would have been the perfect time, perhaps the only time, to say that this is change (I have to say it) at the speed of light.

Cosgriff added that based on current trends, NEMA expects LEDs “to replace most general-service CFL and halogen bulbs in the coming years.”

If that holds true, there is a lot of growth on the near-term horizon. In its last report on the market (a 2015 study tracking LED sales through 2014, which can be found here) DOE reported that there were approximately 3.27 billion A-type lamps installed throughout the U.S.; of this total, just 77.7 million were LEDs. DOE pegged savings in 2014 from the installed LEDs at 17.6 trillion British thermal units, and estimated that if all the A-type lamps in the U.S. were converted to LEDs it could save 525 trillion Btus, or 51 terrawatt-hours (twh) of site electricity each year.

LED sales may not continue their torrid recent pace, but there is no doubt that the long-term savings from these and other more efficient lighting options are going to be substantial. In the early version of its 2016 Annual Energy Outlook released this week (more on that in a subsequent post, but the document can be found here), DOE estimates that residential lighting demand will drop from just under 147 billion kwh in 2015 to roughly 88 billion kwh in 20301—a 40 percent decline even though it expects the number of households in the U.S. to climb from 115 million to 131 million during the same period.

Perhaps it is time to invest in a portfolio of LED manufacturers.

–Dennis Wamsted

1DOE estimates consumption in quads (quadrillion Btus), the conversion to kilowatt-hours was done here.

 

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Rare Good News
 On Electric Demand
 Comes With A Catch

Department of Energy, Forecasts, Utilities, , ,

Good news can be hard to come by in the electric utility industry these days—overall growth is stagnant, new technologies and competitors are aching to get into the market, and customers are beginning to act like, get this, customers, seeking something more than just a monthly bill from their provider. So a report showing soaring growth anywhere in the sector should be a cause for celebration—except, of course, when it includes its own version of a self-destruct mechanism.

The report in question is EIA’s recently released commercial buildings energy consumption survey (CBECS), a treasure trove of data, somewhat dated to be sure, but compelling all the same.  The occasional report—it has been released nine times since 1979—estimates that electricity use in commercial buildings totaled 4,241 trillion Btu in 2012 and accounts for more than 60 percent of the sector’s total energy consumption. While EIA touts the fact that electricity consumption in commercial buildings has almost doubled since it began tracking usage in 1979, the real newsworthy growth has occurred since 1995. Since then, consumption of electricity in commercial buildings has risen by roughly 50 percent, from around 2,750 trillion Btu to 2012’s 4,200-plus level. That 50 percent-plus rise in 17 years amounts to more than 3 percent annually—a level of demand growth that would thrill today’s growth-starved utility executives.

But there is a catch, which I’ll get to in a minute.

Continue reading Rare Good News
 On Electric Demand
 Comes With A Catch →

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Utility Execs’ New Worry:
 Economic Growth,
 Electricity Sales
 No Longer Linked

Forecasts, Ratemaking, Utilities, , ,

If you just glance at the chart below you will dismiss it out of hand—boring, you’ll yell, why are you wasting my time with that graphic, you’ll ask. But take a second, closer look and you’ll see that this graphic tells a compelling story, that of the collapse of the electric utility business model.

Retail sales of electricity in the United States have flat-lined for the past decade: In 2006 total retail sales were 3,669,919 million kilowatt-hours (kwh), in 2015 they were 3,724,525 million kwh. Do the math, that’s an increase of just 54,606 million kwh—or less than 1.5 percent total in 10 years.

Retail_sales_of_electricity,_annual

Continue reading Utility Execs’ New Worry:
 Economic Growth,
 Electricity Sales
 No Longer Linked →

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New NREL Study:
 Prodigious Potential
 For Rooftop PV In U.S.

Distributed Generation, Environment, Forecasts, Solar, ,

It’s pie-in-the-sky by design, but a new report from DOE’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory on the technical potential of rooftop solar in the U.S. is eye-opening nonetheless. All told, NREL said, some 1,118 gigawatts (GW) of capacity could be installed if all the “suitable” rooftops in the U.S. were covered with PV panels, generating upward of 1,432 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity annually—roughly 39 percent of total annual electric sales.

NREL is quick to point out that the study, Rooftop Solar Photovoltaic Potential In The United States (which can be found here), did not look at economics. As such, the study represents “an upper bound on potential deployment rather than a prediction of actual deployment.” But even on this basis, the study found that solar’s potential has expanded significantly in the past decade: A similar study on solar PV’s technical potential that NREL completed in 2008 estimated that 664 GW of rooftop capacity could be installed, generating roughly 880 TWh of electricity annually. The difference between the two estimates, NREL wrote, “can be attributed to increases in module power density, improved estimation of building suitability, higher estimates of the total number of buildings, and improvements in PV performance simulation tools that previously tended to underestimate production.”

Taking that statement at face value, it is almost certain that PV’s technical potential is going to continue rising in the years to come. In particular, NREL noted that its analysis is based on an assumed module efficiency of 16 percent; a figure it used to better represent a mixture of installed systems, not just premium PV panels. If the analysis had assumed a module efficiency of 20 percent, which is where premium systems are today, “each of the technical potential estimates would increase by about 25 percent above the values stated in this report,” NREL wrote.

Continue reading New NREL Study:
 Prodigious Potential
 For Rooftop PV In U.S. →

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Slow And Steady:
 Efficiency Measures
 Hold Utility Load Growth
 To Record Lows

Department of Energy, Forecasts, Utilities, ,

In today’s rapidly changing energy industry, efficiency measures seldom show up in the headlines—slow, steady improvements simply don’t have much `sizzle.’ But while they may be boring, these slow, steady improvements are rewriting the rules in the utility industry.

The latest indication of just how important these efficiency-related changes are occurred last month when the North American Electric Reliability Corporation released its annual long-term reliability assessment (which can be found here) of the U.S. bulk power electric system. For the first time, NERC said, its 10-year forecast for the annual growth rate in both summer and winter peak demand had dropped below 1 percent—“falling to the lowest rates on record.”

Continue reading Slow And Steady:
 Efficiency Measures
 Hold Utility Load Growth
 To Record Lows →

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