Tag Archives: EIA

Rare Good News
 On Electric Demand
 Comes With A Catch

Department of Energy, Forecasts, Utilities, , ,

Good news can be hard to come by in the electric utility industry these days—overall growth is stagnant, new technologies and competitors are aching to get into the market, and customers are beginning to act like, get this, customers, seeking something more than just a monthly bill from their provider. So a report showing soaring growth anywhere in the sector should be a cause for celebration—except, of course, when it includes its own version of a self-destruct mechanism.

The report in question is EIA’s recently released commercial buildings energy consumption survey (CBECS), a treasure trove of data, somewhat dated to be sure, but compelling all the same.  The occasional report—it has been released nine times since 1979—estimates that electricity use in commercial buildings totaled 4,241 trillion Btu in 2012 and accounts for more than 60 percent of the sector’s total energy consumption. While EIA touts the fact that electricity consumption in commercial buildings has almost doubled since it began tracking usage in 1979, the real newsworthy growth has occurred since 1995. Since then, consumption of electricity in commercial buildings has risen by roughly 50 percent, from around 2,750 trillion Btu to 2012’s 4,200-plus level. That 50 percent-plus rise in 17 years amounts to more than 3 percent annually—a level of demand growth that would thrill today’s growth-starved utility executives.

But there is a catch, which I’ll get to in a minute.

Continue reading Rare Good News
 On Electric Demand
 Comes With A Catch →

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Out On A Limb:
 Energy Storage To Track
 Rapid Development
 Of Marcellus Shale, PV

Forecasts, Solar, Utilities, , ,

Predicting the future is hard, I get it, but it shocks me how abysmally wrong some of the smartest people in the business can be, even with the best information.

For example, in a recent interview with EnergyWire John Rowe, chairman emeritus of Chicago-based Exelon Corp. and a long-time big thinker in the utility industry, acknowledged that he and his executive team essentially missed the coming shale gas revolution: “What we didn’t see, even as late as ’08, we just didn’t see what shale gas was going to do to gas prices. Some of our downside scenarios were at $4 [per mmBtu] gas. We did not see below $3 gas. … I have a wound on my neck from that one.”

Rowe is hardly alone in having missed the explosion in shale gas production. As I pointed out here, EIA’s 2004 Annual Energy Outlook didn’t even mention the Marcellus and Utica shale resources. Pity that, since output from Marcellus has jumped from basically nothing a decade ago to 16 billion cubic feet a day this year—accounting for roughly 13 percent of overall U.S. output.

Continue reading Out On A Limb:
 Energy Storage To Track
 Rapid Development
 Of Marcellus Shale, PV →

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EIA Energy Outlook
 Underscores Efficacy
 Of Efficiency Efforts

Department of Energy, Forecasts, Solar, Utilities, ,

The Energy Information Administration’s annual energy outlook, which was released last week, is like manna from heaven for geeky industry analysts and commentators, most definitely including myself.

Like any projection—as I have discussed in prior posts (see this piece in particular)—it is probably outdated essentially from the minute it is finished. But to EIA’s credit, it doesn’t oversell the analysis, noting instead that its forecasts “are not statements of what will happen, but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used for any particular case.” In addition, and here EIA gets extra credit, the agency takes a policy-neutral approach in its analysis, using current law in its projections; there are no assumptions about new legislation, executive orders or extensions of policies with sunset dates. As such, EIA’s analysis is about as fair as it can get.

Despite these limitations, there are a number of fascinating items in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (which can be found here).

Continue reading EIA Energy Outlook
 Underscores Efficacy
 Of Efficiency Efforts →

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Solar Shines Bright
 As California Smashes
 Generation Record

Environment, Solar, Utilities, , ,

California notched another first last year—becoming the first state in the nation to generate more than 5 percent of its electricity from utility-scale solar according to data released last month by DOE’s Energy Information Administration.

All told, EIA said, the state’s utility-scale solar units (defined as those being 1 megawatt or larger) generated a record 9.9 million megawatt-hours (mwh) of electricity in 2014, a whopping 6.1 million mwh increase over 2013. The sharp uptick in output was due largely to the completion and entry into commercial operation of four large facilities—two 550 MW plants (Topaz and Desert Sunlight), the 377 MW Ivanpah unit and the 250 MW Genesis facility. Overall, California added almost 1,900 MW of utility-scale solar to the grid in 2014, bringing the Golden State’s total to 5,400 MW.

And barring the unforeseen, the generation records will keep falling for the next several years.

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 As California Smashes
 Generation Record →

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EIA Reserve Figures
 An Early Present
 For U.S. Economy

Oil and Gas, ,

Call it an early Christmas present for the U.S. economy—the Energy Information Administration released eye-opening data this month showing continued sharp upward movement in proved U.S. oil and natural gas reserves.

The surge, which has been driven by the widespread commercialization and deployment of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling technologies since the mid-2000s, pushed oil reserves above 36 billion barrels in 2013 for the first time since 1975 according to EIA. The news on the gas side is just as dramatic, with proved reserves hitting a record 354 trillion cubic feet, completing a 10-year period which saw natural gas reserves shoot up 75 percent from roughly 200 tcf in 2003.

Equally notable is that U.S. reserves have been increasing even as domestic production has been climbing. For example, proved U.S. oil reserves rose 3.1 billion barrels in 2013, up more than 9 percent from 2012, even as the country produced an estimated 2.7 billion barrels during the year. This is the fifth year in a row that both crude production and proved reserves have increased, EIA said. Similarly, on the natural gas side total proved reserves increased 31 tcf in 2013, up 10 percent from the year before. At the same time, natural gas production hit a record 26.5 tcf during the year, up 1.4 percent from 2012 and the eighth consecutive year of rising gas output according to the agency.

oil&gasreserves-EIA

The big winners on the gas side were Pennsylvania and West Virginia, which sit atop the massive Marcellus Shale gas play. Combined, the two states accounted for 70 percent of the national increase in proved gas reserves in 2013: Proved reserves climbed 37 percent in Pennsylvania during the year, rising by 13.5 tcf, while West Virginia added 8.3 tcf to its proved reserve base in 2013. Overall, shale gas now accounts for 45 percent of the nation’s overall proved natural gas reserves—almost 160 tcf—according to EIA.

On the oil side, the unconventional resources in North Dakota’s Bakken and Three Forks fields accounted for most of the growth in proved reserves EIA said. All told, the agency said, reserves there climbed 1.9 billion barrels in 2013—51 percent of the national increase for the year. Overall, tight oil plays (those that benefit the most from fracturing and horizontal drilling) now account for almost 30 percent of total U.S. crude and lease condensate proved oil reserves.

In another piece of good news, EIA said it still expects U.S. crude production to climb in 2015—notwithstanding the recent sharp decline in crude oil prices, which have fallen into the $50 per barrel range this month from their peak of $112 in June.

Drilling activity is likely to decline in the new year, EIA said. “However, projected oil prices remain high enough to support development drilling activity in the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Niobrara and Permian Basin, which contribute the majority of U.S. oil production growth.’’

Overall, the agency said it expected U.S. crude production to average 9.3 million barrels per day in 2015, up 700,000 barrels per day from 2014.

All in all, these presents are likely to be among the most popular ever—keeping prices in check and ensuring ready access to supplies for the foreseeable future.

Merry Christmas to all.

–Dennis Wamsted

 

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